ECONOMICOUTLOOK
18
Failingmarket
international
construction
november 2014
-7% in 2014 with virtually no growth in 2015.
Growth should return in 2016, but only at +4%,
and average growth over the next five years will
be just +3%
Government spending on public sector
investment is beingused tobolster the popularity
of the Putin regime. Even so, infrastructure
spending fell -4.4% in real terms in 2013 and
another -3%decline is expected in2014.
the medium term calls for some economic
improvement, and evenwith its problems, Russia
should be able to find the capital to support
+3.0% average growth over the next five years,
leadby infrastructure.
It should be noted that this is 1.3 percentage
points weaker than IHSGlobal Insight’s forecast
a year ago, indicating thatRussia is paying a price
for its domestic and foreignpolicymiscues.
iC
IHSGlobal Insight
Recognised as themost consistently accurate
forecasting company in theworld, IHS Global
Insight has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance,
and government with revenues in excess of
US$ 80million, 5,100 employees and 50 offices
around theworld in 30 countries. 80% of Fortune
500 companies are customers of IHS Global Insight.
■
For more information onmatters discussed in
this article or Global Insights’ services, visit
or contact Scott Hazelton
in the US on+1 781 301 9044 or at
Spending on energy infrastructure fared the
best, while spending on water/sewer was the
laggard.
Infrastructure spending is forecast to return to
growth in 2015, although only at +1%. Better
growth around+5% for2016 and2017will allow
the five-year average tohit +3.3%
Taken together, Russian construction spending
will decline once more in 2014. However,
Russian construction growth by sector
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
2006
Residential
Structures
Infrastructure
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2019
2018
