ECONOMICOUTLOOK
Improving prospects
residential structures side as its current monetary
policy hurts manufacturing competitiveness
relative to Germany. France holds the middle
ground at just +1% average growth.
Spain andPortugal are likely to return togrowth
in 2015, but construction spending will expand
at less than+1%.Greece and Italywill see further
declines in construction spending in 2015, and
whengrowth returns, itwill be so tepid that 2019
Someeconomies,notablyGermanyand theUK,
have essentially thrown off the yoke of recession.
While a lower Euro will help, many countries
remain constrained by a lack of international
competitiveness, excessive regulation and
uncertainty – none of which is conducive to
structural investment. Combined with weak to
stagnant population growth, there is no impetus
to significantly revive the European construction
market as awhole, although a couple of countries
have decent prospects.
iC
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construction spending will be below 2014 levels
in real terms.
Non-residential structures is the weakest link
for Greece, as the uncertainty around its debt
position makes investment unattractive, while a
general malaise affects all segments of the Italian
market.
Apart fromGreece, the regionhasmadeprogress
with its fiscal and financial difficulties, and the
construction outlook is mildly better today than
even sixmonths ago.
Total construction growth forecasts
2014
2015
2016
Average2014-2019 Average2019-2024
World WesternEurope
UnitedKingdom France
Germany
Spain Italy
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
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