ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
A turbulent region
19
december 2013
international
construction
economy. Since the outlook includes most
developed economies which tend to be less risky
than emerging markets, the average is larger, less
risky and slightly slower growing than the world
average.
Return vs risk
The goal, of course, is to find the countries with
the greatest potential return with lowest possible
risk. Morocco is the clear winner in this regard,
growth in non-residential structures as it strives to
diversify its economy.
The near term outlook for North Africa
will feature slow improvement, with growth
improving as political stability is re-established.
The faster and more directly that new
governments deal with their social and
demographic issues, and the more that they adopt
policies to attract investment, the sooner and
stronger growth will return.
iC
IHS Global Insight
Recognised as the most consistently accurate
forecasting company in the world, IHS Global
Insight has over 3,800 clients in industry, finance,
and government with revenues in excess of
US$ 80 million, 5,100 employees and 50 offices
around the world in 30 countries. 80% of Fortune
500 companies are customers of IHS Global Insight.
■
For more information on matters discussed in
this article or Global Insights’ services, visit
or contact Scott Hazelton
in the US on +1 781 301 9044 or at
but Algeria, Tunisia and Mauritania offer above
average growth potential if one will accept
moderate risk.
Libya offers attractive growth, but the elevated
risk level will be unacceptable to many. The clear
place to avoid is Sudan – with high risk and poor
growth potential.
Egypt will see much of its growth dedicated
to infrastructure as it resumes its path to
modernisation, while Tunisia will see most of its
Growth in real construction spending
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Tunisia Residential
Egypt Residential
Tunisia Total
Egypt Total
Tunisia Non-residential
Egypt Non-residential
Tunisia Infrastructure
Egypt Infrastructure
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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