CONFIDENCE SURVEY
2.6% last year, and 7% predict more than 10%
declines, compared to nearly 3% the previous
year.
These figures may represent a slightly more
realistic view of the market compared to last
year, and a sense that in emerging markets,
for example, like Brazil and China, there is
great opportunity but still many challenges
hindering sustained growth.
It’s also worth remembering that the
confidence level of 65.4%, mentioned in the
first paragraph, is based on prospects for the
next five years, while the other tables in this
survey concentrate on the next 12 months.
Regionally, the comments made by
participants reflect the same mixed view.
Even in North America, where the story has
been unequivocally positive over the last 18
months, comments from the continent about
the year ahead range from; “Expectations
are that aerial platforms will continue to
have growth opportunities for several years.
Increases in our fleet should remain consistent
into 2014,” to, “Cost pressures will increase,”
and, “it will remain static.”
Let’s not be too pessimistic however; the
regional figures promising strong growth
in North America are much higher than
those suggesting the opposite. Nevertheless,
participants expecting a 1% – 10% decline
represent 9% of those taking part, compared to
2% last year. It is possible, of course, that this
slight drop in confidence simply represents
a strong market, where those taking part are
starting from a higher base than last year.
Regional variations
In Europe the comments are also mixed in
tone, but the overall mood is improving. We
all know that market conditions are radically
different when comparing countries in
the south of Europe to those in the north,
generally speaking. In light of this, it is not
as easy to make a sweeping statement about
Europe as it is for North America.
“It is clear that the crisis has passed in
Europe. Business (construction and industrial)
is growing and this growth will be very fast in
2014-2015 and reasonable in 2015-2017,” says
one participant – it’s a sentiment shared by a
good number of others.
On the side of the coin: “Still suicidal
bidding going on in spite of plenty of work
available for all,” and, “It will remain at 2013
levels, no growth.”
The figures bear this out. Confidence is
about the same as last year among those who
operate in Europe. Expectations for more than
10% growth are up a smidgen at 17.6%, while
those predicting 1% – 10% growth are down
marginally at 35%.Those looking at no growth
number the same as last year at 28%, and
overall those looking at declines are basically
the same too.The message is; growth is on
the horizon, but it certainly won’t happen
in all parts of Europe and the market is still
wavering in others.
In Australia and New Zealand those
expecting growth next year are significantly
16
access
INTERNATIONAL
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2013
2014 SALES PREDICTIONS
2014 PRODUCTION LEVELS
2014 PRICE CHANGES
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
>10% growth 0-10% growth No growth 0-10% decline >10% decline
40
33
21
28
23
13
21 20
24
14
55
38
41
39
1
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
>10% growth 0-10% growth No growth 0-10% decline >10% decline
34
31
22
16
25
14
24
26
43
36 36 36
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
>10% growth 0-10% growth No growth 0-10% decline >10% decline
9 9
4 46
29
39
51
46
43
37
37
56
48
30
21
WHAT DO SUPPLIERS THINK?
48
4
13
10
1
7
89
28
40
12
3
5
8
12
7
4
7
7
12
8
4 5
13
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
6
5
3
3 2
